Anton Shenk
I study how ai systems reshape ECONOMIES, and threaten to upend NATIONAL SECURITY and GEOPOLITICS.
I'm an AI Policy Research Associate at RAND, where I work within the Center for the Geopolitics of AGI on the economic and national security implications of frontier AI systems. My work synthesizes across economics, technology, and defense to turn complex developments into rigorous analysis for policymakers and the public – from modeling competitive dynamics in AI markets to evaluating catastrophic risks from advanced AI.
RESEARCH
Featured Publications
Charting Multiple Courses to Artificial General Intelligence
RAND Corporation, 2025 | PaperRethinking Social and Economic Policy in the Age of General-Purpose AI
RAND Corporation, 2025 | PaperEvaluating Natural Monopoly Conditions in the AI Foundation Model Market
RAND Corporation, 2024 | Paper | Blog Post
Featured in Tyler Cowen's Marginal RevolutionEvaluating AI for National Security and Public Safety
RAND Corporation, 2024 | PaperSelected Talks
Shockwave: A Simulation on the Geopolitics of AI and Energy in Europe
Munich Security Conference, 2026Preparing For Advanced AI: National Security, Risk, and Strategy Under Deep Uncertainty
MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), 2026Code Samples
Modeling the Economic Viability of AI Development [ Appendix | Code | Dashboard ]
Interactive simulator modeling profitability of AI models based on compute trends, training costs, and usage growth. R, Shiny.Formal Models for Robust AGI Governance [ Appendix | Code ]
Model of strategic interactions between states under AGI development, safety, verification, and risk uncertainty. R, Differential Equations.Explore my full RAND corpus, archive, and GitHub for additional writing and code.
About
I'm an AI Policy Research Associate at RAND, where I work within the Center for the Geopolitics of AGI on the economic and national security implications of frontier AI systems.
At RAND, I've published over a dozen pieces examining AI market competition, catastrophic risks from advanced AI, and the strategic implications of AGI. Previously, I studied Economics and Mathematics at Tufts University, where I completed graduate-level coursework in econometrics, game theory, and statistics.Research Interests
• Economic implications of advanced AI systems
• National security risks and geopolitics of AGI
• AI governance and evaluation frameworks